State bankruptcy in Greece

Buy feta cheese and olive oil!
The Greek budget hole to bring the countries of the euro zone in distress. Germany has guilt. BY BEAT WILLMS


Closed Business: In Athens, making the crisis even noticeable. Photo: dpa

The huge public debt of Greece, the other countries of the euro area and the European Central Bank (ECB) put on alert. Because of the reduced credit rating agencies now have three of the member country also radiates to the common currency. In particular olive oil for sale German officials as Chancellor Angela Merkel and Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble (CDU both) demand as far back sanctions. Representatives of the EU Commission and the ECB have in the past week in Athens rummaged through the budgets and demand stronger savings efforts of Greece.

The problem can not be dismissed out of hand: Greece has a budget deficit of officially 12.7, but possibly up to 14.5 percent of its economic output. And governments should have the numbers expected beautiful for years to meet the stability criteria for the euro, allowing only a deficit of 3 percent. Worse than the negative balance state alone but the combination with a similar deficit in the current account. Greece produces significantly less than it consumes, and it must import more than it can export.

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Normally a country would have such a twin deficit devalue its currency and reduce the cost so that its exports and attract foreign direct investment. Because of the single currency, Greece is blocking this solution.

The Commerzbank analysts have noted in a recent study three possible future scenarios. As "very unlikely" case, they refer to a breakdown of the European Monetary System. These interests are too strong to hold together the Union. The second option would be "orderly exit" from the Greek € composite. But the rules may look not include a procedure, but there the authors find "remarkable" that the ECB has recently published a study on this very topic, "The Third -. And in the opinion of most experts, most likely - scenario is that the better-off euro-zone countries support Greece.

Officially stand out so far, however, both the Member States and the ECB. Ultimately, however, could the leaders "extraordinary event" notice in a country and help decide, subject to conditions. Examples could direct loans or loan include a joint €.

Economists such as the UNCTAD chief economist Heiner Flassbeck or the head of the German Institute for Macroeconomic Research, Gustav Horn go beyond that: They keep Germany in particular for the guilt for the misery in Greece or extra virgin olive oil for sale and Co - and thus in a street '. Current account deficits as the Greek were only possible because countries like Germany have significant current account surpluses and Flassbeck. "Germany has increased the competitiveness of its export industry in that it more than ten years were practically a non-wage increase policy." According to the ECB's inflation target unit labor costs should rise by around 2 percent, so in ten years by about 22 percent. In Germany, they climbed in the last ten years, but just 8 percent in Greece, however, by 28 "Greece is so much closer to the norm than Germany," said Flassbeck. Germany will be but taken by anyone to justice.

And the solution? Flassbeck would prefer if the EU were to agree on a basic plan for the approximation of the wage gains - even if the result of collective bargaining is difficult. In addition IMK chief calls Horn a strategic change of the German economy. This would also bring it to the Import world champion, so other countries can sell more goods to Germany. "We now need not buy all the feta cheese and olive oil," said Horn. If German domestic demand increase, either at the "the dense plexus in the euro area," a sensible impulse and for Greece.

As relief Flassbeck is also a European bond not averse to this would constitute a subsidy mediated Greece and other deficit countries: The countries of the euro zone would take together in the money markets money. The interest thereon would be significantly lower than that which would have to pay for Greek bonds, but significantly higher than for German government bonds.